Tech Predictions 2009: Webkit surpasses Flash Player penetration

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As I wrote before in my post titled “Write once, REALLY run Everywhere“, I believe WebKit to possibly be the most installed piece of open source software today. And if it isn’t today, it will be next year, mark my words. However, that it is only a part of the prediction I want to make […]

As I wrote before in my post titled “Write once, REALLY run Everywhere“, I believe WebKit to possibly be the most installed piece of open source software today. And if it isn’t today, it will be next year, mark my words. However, that it is only a part of the prediction I want to make in this post. I am taking this one provoking step further: I predict that WebKit will even surpass the device penetration of Adobe’s Flash Player.
I know, I know, Adobe has just released version 10 of Flash Player and in my experience, it takes about 18 months for a new Flash Player version to reach the penetration level of its preceding version. So, fair enough, I will take that into account in my prediction. Let me rephrase:
I predict that WebKit will surpass the device penetration that Flash Player 9 has today, which, according to Adobe, is 97.5% (this is an average over the markets this is measured in).
Now you will want to know how in the world I think to measure the penetration of WebKit. The answer is that I don’t know yet, but Adobe uses the Millward Brown methodology which looks to be very comprehensive. I don’t see why the same thing couldn’t be done for WebKit. Off course, someone will need to pay for that research and that is where my challenge lies. So, here goes nothing: Dear Adobe, would you be so kind to do the Open Source community a big favor and rank the ubiquity of your Flash Player against WebKit? Come on, I challenge you to bust my prediction!

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