CTO Blog
As we are well into November, it is high time we take a few peeks into what 2009 may bring. As the past months have proven though, anything can happen, anytime, anywhere. Volatility is a life style. Yep, and life was easy when we still thought that change was the only constant.
At least we had a constant.
So what can we do? Predict anyway, of course. Follow this blog in the forthcoming weeks to see what is boiling up in Capgemini’s CTO and Technology communities and let us know next year autumn if we were right. Or better still: join us right now in the comments and share your own predictions with the rest of us.
To kick off, here is my first prediction: being Deliberately Disconnected is something we will actively search for. And if not, others will force us. UK commuter train operator C2C already did it: they are using high tech film to block GSM mobile reception in their coaches. Imagine that ocean of calm, everybody having these introspective, meditative moments before embarking on yet another hectic working day. No shouting, no funny ringtones, no text beeps, just serenity. Hopefully this is a lesson to all the doomed airlines that are considering to allow the use of mobile phones on board of their planes: 2009 is going to be tough as it is anyway, so you may not want to chase away your remaining, loyal passengers (believe me, using mobile phones on a plane will lead to unbearable pandemonium, there will be blood).
We are living our lives short breathed. The ADHD economy makes us impulse and hyperactive, always hungry for new stimuli and information. We tend to become inattentive, even discomgoogolated. If there is one benefit to the crisis we are currently in, it is that it makes us rethink the essentials, taking a perspective from the outside and actually reserve the time to contemplate. Yes, agile fans, in systems development it might even mean spending some more careful time on architecture, design and requirements specification before hastily constructing the first pilot that can be launched into the user community (I have coined the concept of ‘Slow IT’ for this, analogue to Slow Food, more about it later).
If C2C’s coating – which is a combination of metals, chemicals and plastic – blocks mobile reception and radio signals, it will also stop WiFi. Imagine what it will do to meetings: if the attendees can not check their E-mail, RSS feeds, Twitter and FaceBook buzz on their laptop, Blackberry or iPhone (the latter probably won’t have 3G reception anyway, admitted) they may just actually start to participate in the meeting, listen to others, be involved in meaningful dialogues.
That will be a change indeed. And as we are in a transformation era anyway, I am most happy to launch the concept of Deliberately Disconnected as my first prediction for 2009. And let’s just hope you did not get this one through Twitter.
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uh oh, Ron, I am afraid that we still need to go first through a peak of being connected
was sitting on the thalys today to les fontaines and i could connect through wifi to the internet at 300 km/h!
i think 2009 will be more and more about being always connected and by fall next year you’ll be right…
@Lee, well, did you get this through Twitter or not…? Guess you did! And it was only Sunday evening…
Hi Ron,
I am afraid, though I visualize a future similar to what you are predicting, I also tend to agree with Lee to some extent.
We in India and I am sure most developing nations, are still reaching the peak of the cycle before we stablize and probably then come to a situation when we may have to consider being Deliberately Disconnected.
I think we in India are still in the early stages of adoption of these collaborative tools and in general “being connected” syndrome. It will take a few years in my opinion before a large percentage of people would start feeling the need to be Deliberately Disconnected.
Just my opinions from what I feel is the ground reality out here.
Regards,
Nikhil
Hi Ron,
I am afraid, though I visualize a future similar to what you are predicting, I also tend to agree with Lee to some extent.
We in India and I am sure most developing nations, are still reaching the peak of the cycle before we stablize and probably then come to a situation when we may have to consider being Deliberately Disconnected.
I think we in India are still in the early stages of adoption of these collaborative tools and in general “being connected” syndrome. It will take a few years in my opinion before a large percentage of people would start feeling the need to be Deliberately Disconnected.
Just my opinions from what I feel is the ground reality out here.
Regards,
Nikhil
P.S.: And yes I too got this this through Twitter!
Hmm, you could be right about your prediction. I am thinking about Andy’s post about e-mail. Companies are actually organizing periodic e-mail free days already. And, of course, their is nothing wrong with “earthing” yourself every once in a while. This also reminds me of the “omnireachability syndrom”, which I blogged about some time back: http://blokmark.blogspot.com/2007/01/omnireachability-syndrom.html
And, yes, without twitter I might not have read your post as soon as I did now. But would the world have ended if I didn’t?
Ron,
To ‘deliberately disconnect’ sounds like an angry reaction with longing for a more peaceful, less ADHD kind-of-way-of-working. I think the prediction you describe is a natural reaction of 1.0 thinking.
We need to go beyond ‘work-life balanced thinking’ and move towards ‘work-life integrated’ thinking. To my opinion the need to ‘deliberately disconnect’ is a sign of inbalance and not a way to find new balance.
That doesn’t mean that 3.0 thinking per se is better than 1.0 thinking, but for example Instant Messaging in my experience causes less telephone calls, less e-mails and happier colleages and customers. Twitter helps me a lot in my search for innovative ideas. Up to 30% of my recent presentations content is Twitterinitiated material.
I am however trained in both IT and ZEN. I choose (to) flow. I need my rest, but that can be a millisecond operation. A Twitter lifestream (to me) is like flow. There is no accumulation of information and no planning of information exchange. I give and therefore receive.
I recommend a ‘joyful connect’ instead of ‘a deliberate disconnect’.
Arthur
@Arthur: interesting, I am trained in ZEN as well (and a bit in IT too, I guess). To deliberately disconnect sounds like perfect ‘flow’ to me, as long as it fits in the scheme of activities. Trained ZEN people can simply choose to just observe what is happening around them, without actually processing it (I remember that we often practiced ZEN meditation while the neighbour was also practicing, playing music on his trumpet, we quickly understood that he was not distracting or annoying us, this was the essence of real meditation). As most of us are however not ZEN masters, I think it would be helpful to deliberately disconnect every now and then. And afterwards, indeed getting joyfully connected again. A typical reaction to ’1.0 thinking’? Maybe, but then again many of us are really 1.0 people, experimenting with what 2.0 can bring us. And in the process, we often forget the essence of things and get absorbed by the tooling, the events and oceans of information that 2.0 delivers. I believe that taking well-placed, deliberate ‘meditative moments’ will help us to eventually understand and – yes – become one with it all.
Thanks! Great thoughts.
@Mark: good builds. Just tried to call you to discuss, but your phone was switched off….? That’s scary. Something serious going on? Can we help? Anyway, just leave a message on FaceBook, I have an RSS feed on it.
@Lee: well, as long as the WiFi access on the Thalys train keeps people away from using their cells, that’s just fine. I love travelling by Thalys, but often find that reading a book or just staring at the French landscape is made impossible by haunted business men, shouting their way through conf calls….
@Nikhil: and some true words indeed. From my own experience, I perceive your great country India as a sometimes confusing, but almost fascinating mixture of spiritual foundation and a hectic ‘ground reality’. Who ever has seen Mumbai taxi drivers navigating through the traffic just ‘by sound’, knows what ‘real-time, event-driven’ really means. Being connected to the world is essential for growth and I acknowledge your claim that this even more true for India. Let’s just hope that – in all the rush – we never really loose touch with what drives us.
Ron,
.
I guess the rest ‘I’ say flows away from that point, but is worth mentioning.
Thanks for your reply. You say:… To deliberately disconnect sounds like perfect ‘flow’ to me, as long as it fits in the scheme of activities…
The word ‘deliberately’, to me, has a radical, defensive connotation. And also the ‘disconnect’ implies that the ‘connect’-state is some sort of an uncontrollable energy leak. Also ‘..as long as ..’ is kind of conditional and therefore counterproductive to an unconditional flow
I think that being connected is like being consciously exposed to the sound of trumpet. (beautiful example by the way) And that the disconnect we need to learn is to really understand our own minds energy leaks. The ‘disconnect’ than becomes a healing power instead of a ‘deliberate’ but still unconscious activity.
I know you know.
Why not: ‘Conscious connect’
Besides ZEN I’ve learned a little on Advaita, which means not-two. A-dvaita. No ‘I’ that is separated from ‘a world’. Indeed what you said: … to eventually understand and – yes – become one with it all … But ‘one’ is so difficult to grasp for most people. ‘One’ is the result of not being separate (two) anymore …
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. To make ‘a point’ with ‘deliberate disconnect’ is perfect of course
Arthur
@ron yes i did read it through mobile twitter and i am actually starting to reach a bit what you are describing, however i realize that the majority of the people still need to get into this “always connected” mode
@mark i really need therapy according to your blogpost
@Arthur, thanks again and very inspiring indeed. Hopefully, some readers will be pleasantly surprised by finding a discussion like this on a ‘tech’ blog (although it is a business tech blog). I perfectly follow your point, but would still argue – in the positive sense of the word – that to many people meditation is a much-needed excercise towards achieving a state that they have not yet reached. Meditation then becomes a ‘deliberate disconnect’ with a clear objective. Until – some day – they no longer need it.
@Ron You are right. It also took me a while to (un)learn to see what’s really happening. It litteraly makes sense to ‘deliberately disconnect’ if the information (technology) is overwhelming.
‘Radical’ measures are sometimes needed to refind the true meaning and sense out of it all. A sudden life threatening ‘dis-ease’ is a radical disconnect with the convenience of a healthy functioning body. To get fired is a radical disconnect from the convenience of a steady income. To get dumped by your beloved is a radical disconnect from the convenience of the warmth of a relationship. All those radical changes (can) help people to use the ‘disconnect’ as a ‘re-connect’ with themselves. And it clearly takes time to see it that way.
However, being dumped, fired or getting a dis-ease is some-thing that seems to be happening to you. It seems to be beyond your control. By adding ‘deliberate’ you take responsibility for your actions. And therefore for the consequences.
I agree: ‘Deliberately disconnect’
Arthur
In reaction on your Blog article Deliberately Disconnected I would like to add some of my expectations for 2009.
As in 2009 we will keep our mobiles, handhelds, etc switched off during our so precious family moments, in the plane (train and automobile) and during social events, people will start communicating again in a direct manner. As everyone in 2009 will realize that phone and email are not the perfect way of communicating, but drinking a coffee with the other one really enhances your life, perspectives and the whole human being, we will start building on Social Cohesion rather than wasting time on Technical Perfection.
Children will start to play again outside, throw away their Ninetendos, building secret cabins in trees. They will return their mobiles to their parents and say that email and phone communication is only contributing to annoyance and irritation and that they first want to think things over before they impulsively respond. They will tell their parents that they are so tired of all the mails they are cc´ed, or even worse bcc´ed in, and that they prefer to tell the plain, simple direct truth.
The parents will go to work and start implementing these child’s wisdom in their work. Telling their bosses that IT is not that complicated, that there are technical engineers building Nuclear Factories and Oil Refineries for decades, that lives DO depend on that, that they are able to deliver those projects on a Fixed-Based Contract and that this is also possible on IT Projects.
The boss will agree with this and tell the parents that when he buys a car, he is not interested in the technical stuff, he just wants that the car works, so he will communicate this message throughout the company. Everybody will cheer for this change and their will be a surplus on the IT budget, leaving additional money for all employees involved in the Project, so they get an additional Christmas Bonus, which definitely has nothing to do with their, once so desired but now hated, performance pay.
Society at large will become again a very nice place to live where we say what we have to say, we get paid for delivery and we realize that nobody in the world can add value to a company for a US$ 30 mln paycheck.
Everybody will invest in Wallstreet for the long term and we will do this also in an environmental responsible way. We will share this world together in the long term and we will despise all the short term gaining.
In 2009 the world will become a better place!
Even though I do not know whether these are expectations or it is wishful thinking, as father of 2 little kids and husband of a beautiful loving wife, I would love to send out this message, so maybe we can become a little bit more human again with eye for long term relationships and quality instead of short term quantity.
Obama’s CTO
Despite all the serenity I predicted for 2009, I followed the US election night in that typical mashup style of now: on the couch with my Apple laptop, one window open with Google Docs (I was writing a column for…
Yes, Ralf!
What you described is IT 3.0. It´s not wishful thinking but a must, and it will happen. The question is when . And yes, I also have two small children and several not so smalls.
There are signals, BTW, that we are moving in that direction.
One is the crisis. Somebody punctured the bubble, the King was actually naked.
Recall the so-called “Internet Bubble” that flopped by 2000? Now we are witnessing a similar event, the fall ot the “Endless Wealth” bubble.
During the nineties there was speculation about a cycle-less, ever-growing, economy in the USA. Both resources and the Planet were infinite. Companies only needed to spend as much as possible in IT and that would keep productivity positive, i.e.: production growing exponentially.
The companies did so but the miracle didn’t happen except for a few like Cisco. And Kathrina spoke, like Zarathustra, with bold voice.
And then Obama won the elections. IMO because he communicated a message containing a mix of realism and goodwill.
He is recruiting people to do things for their country (not mine, I’m in Argentina) and the Americans might still remember they once were collaborative, thrifty, hardworking people and that’s why as a Nation they are number one.
As in agile software development, and in all software developments whatsoever, we will not end up with A Perfect World at the end of the first iteration but something is something.
I want to be clear: it´s not Obama who will save the people by the people itself for example starting with the election of the proper leadership.
In a world where wardwork beats speculation there will be again headroom for talent, IT talent, and we´ll benefit from that. Not mere technology but applied talent.
When I read today’s Dilbert Comic I had to think right away about this blogpost:
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2008-11-18/
@Rick: I rest my case! Guess they are reading our blog too…
The choice to ‘deliberately disconnect’ would be wonderful. Reclaiming zones for contemplation, reflection or even connecting with others through old fashioned conversation is a must. My organisation Craftspace is creating a touring exhibition about slowness. http://makingaslowrevolution.wordpress.com
Carl Honore put me in touch with your website. We love the idea of slow technology.
Deirdre
Deirdre,
Many thanks. Also for the link to the blog, which takes another, very interesting approach to understanding and practicing ‘slow’. I will definitely follow it and – from my side – I will try to inspire the outside world a bit with fresh ideas about Slow Technology and Slow IT. Also through Carl’s http://www.slowplanet.com
http://www.lider-blog.blogspot.com
http://www.genc-dizi.blogspot.com
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I have been arguing before why I think now is exactly the right time for a more careful, considerate approach to information technology. There are many arguments, many pros and cons, lots of blog-items to write. But every now…