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Why Google may not win the Social war - Guest piece by Vinesh Kurup, Managing Consultant, Capgemini
I was very interested by the views of a younger colleague – who therefore is more representative of the mainstream social networking – and I asked him if he would write a guest Blog piece. This is the result and I think it ought to encourage some really good responses. Here it is:
In the past few weeks, I have been spending most of my time reading, debating and challenging some popular wisdom around the future of the social networking scene. I would like to share some of my conclusions and ask for your reactions to my thoughts.
Microblogging site Twitter was one of them and I find it exciting. However, leveraging Twitter for business purposes provides a different challenge. My twittering for business quest got a major push when I read the story of how Southwest Airlines is using Twitter for customer service and brand protection. A bit of googling, got me further twitter success stories at companies like Jetblue, Fox Chicago and Comcast. Companies and users can very easily do a brand search on Tweetscan and create a feed for any new postings. Twitter is quickly becoming the place where conversations are exploding well before they even make it to mainstream blogs and companies are latching on. While Twitter is big in the US and Japan, it is yet to make much inroads into the UK, but looks like we are onto something and I would love to hear more stories.
The other thing I am keenly looking forward to is 'Web Slices' that make their debut with IE8 next year. While Microsoft has gone to great lengths to explain the whys and the hows, a simplistic view of Web Slices is to look at them as glorified mini-RSS feeds located inside the web browser real estate. So why visit the Facebook website, if all your friend’s status updates can be fed directly into your browser? Or Why refresh your ebay page, if a part of your browser is updated directly when the auction is updated. It is a simple idea whose time has come and I think it is the next evolution. My reasons are based on history. After Blogs, we had micro-blogging. The likes of Twitter, Pownce, Jaiku etc are taking the Internet to the next level of interactivity. Similarly after RSS we need micro-RSS technologies like Web Slices to make the Net more useful. I am sure once we have got used to web slices, we will wonder how we lived so long without it.
While the trend to become micro seems to be working fine, the other end of the spectrum is where things get a bit tricky. Most technology trends seem to find a flavour in trying to be Mega (or rather Meta). During the early days of search engines, when Altavista and Yahoo Search ruled the world; there was a brief period of Meta search engines - search engines that would parse your query to other engines and displayed the results. The theory of having such a search engine is sound and some of these still exist (Mamma.com, dogpile.com, search.com, metacrawler.com), but they have barely got out of the blocks after all these years. A similar grave yard can be seen in the Instant Messaging scene. IM fatigue gave rise to Meta or Multi-protocol IMs like Trillian, Gaim, Meebo etc which could consolidate your AOL, Yahoo Messenger and MSN among other. While such technologies have scored with early adopters, the success of these among the wider Internet user community is still debateable.
This sets me up nicely into the debate around OpenSocial from Google. While much is being said about what it can do, it is still very unclear on what it can deliver. The big stumbling block is the lack of Facebook in the OpenSocial movement. Also, at this stage OpenSocial is more ‘Open Widget’ rather than ‘Open Social’ since a ‘list of friends’ of one social network cannot connect with others through OpenSocial. OpenSocial does provide a platform for developers to port their widgets across networks. I think Google is unfortunately caught in the wrong place, since a move towards Open Widget does not provide too much end user benefit, but a move towards becoming a meta-social engine does not bode well with history. Will Facebook do to Google what Google did to other search engines? I guess we will wait and watch, but I am not giving up my Facebook account in a hurry.
As the whole point is the ‘social’ or people aspect it will follow the direction that we all choose to make happen, so I hope this will start a good debate on how you think the future will go.
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Comments
# on June 18, 2008 10:48 AM, Gaurav sharma said:
I cant agree more. I rcvd dis on capgemini twitter update. M sittng n hv coffe wen i get dis n follow it on my cell phone. Twitter has many business potentials
# on June 18, 2008 10:51 AM, Gaurav sharma said:
I cant agree more. I rcvd dis on capgemini twitter update. M sittng n hv coffe wen i get dis n follow it on my cell phone. Twitter has many business potentials
# on June 18, 2008 4:56 PM, andy mulholland said:
wonderfull post in full Twitter style too!
# on June 18, 2008 5:43 PM, Raj Jani said:
Interesting PoV Vinesh. I only looked at twitter recently and can't quite work out how it would evolve. Your question "Will Facebook do to Google what Google did to other search engines?" is interesting.
I have come across a Satelite channel lately which made me think of a similar question viz-a-vie Google, YouTube and the MSM. Called Current TV (http://current.com/), it is a smaller, more discrete version of You Tube with one difference. It seems that the TV channel becomes an outlet for popular video documentaries put together by citizen journalists. The latest one I saw yesterday was very well put together. Has potential to give the MSM a run for their money!
# on June 19, 2008 8:28 AM, Jerry said:
It's amazing that we are witnessing a true and rapid evolution taking place within our very own lifetimes--indeed, within a matter of months.
If you think about this in terms of Richard Dawkins' meme theory, these trends remarkably exemplify the mechanism of "fittest for the purpose". The "best" memes on the Internet are winning rapidly, and they are phasing out older, less fit memes.
In another level, the internet has become both the thing that is evolving as well as the catalyst that is spurring this evolution in information.
# on June 19, 2008 8:51 AM, Vinesh Kurup said:
Raj, Very valid point. I stumbled onto Current TV some weeks ago, and must say it is interesting. Though it is in its early days, i am sure we will see similar channels croping up - esp when we look at the Convergence space between TV, Computer & the Internet. Also, your comment is well timed too, Microsoft has just announced another deal in the Interactive TV advt market!! (http://tinyurl.com/5v5mpk)
# on June 19, 2008 9:05 AM, Vinesh Kurup said:
Jerry, Could not agree more with you. Product lifecycles are becoming increasingly short in the Web2.0 space. To use an analogy, the Web 2.0 space is a bit like walking down a supermarket's aisle which stacks bottled water. While all of them address the same need, all of them proclaim different (real or perceived) virtues. Besides, new brands keep appearing at an alarming rate, while others disappear without a trace. The only thing that sets them apart is their brand equity - else how do you differentiate between Parisian spring water with Norwegian glacier water or something bottled at home.
# on June 19, 2008 1:30 PM, Raj Jani said:
...how do you differentiate between Parisian spring water with Norwegian glacier water or something bottled at home...
Immediately reminded me of Del Boy's Peckam water. Brits will know what I mean:-)
Good point Jerry. Being an eternal optimist, I think the future will judge this particular time in mankind's history on the planet as one of its finest. IF we (collectively) take advantage of the opportunity we face. Big if!
# on June 19, 2008 6:47 PM, Anonymous said:
Imp. Thing here is how v capgemini as group r responding 2 these changes? Wt r v dong? Employees r already usng new channels 2 connect n collaborate. Are v just being passive commentators or participatng n change takng place? Do v need 2 move faster n harness it better 4 group? Pardon my text as m usng my phone browser.
# on June 19, 2008 7:50 PM, Vinesh Kurup said:
Thanks for the post. While I cannot provide an official response to your post, I can share somethings that are happening around the group. Capgemini is definitly leveraging some of these cutting edge technologies. For eg. you can subscribe to the CTO blog via Twitter. My original post was a product of using some bleeding edge Web 2.0 thinking at our clients. Another example is the Mashup Factory being pioneered by Capgemini Netherland. You can also visit Capgemini in Second Life, which recently did a recruitment campaign. Given the size & diversity of the Group, such things can be difficult to spot. Finally, in case you get an opportunity, would recommend that you check out the Capgemini Web 2.0 based Intranet & knowledgebase.
# on June 19, 2008 10:58 PM, Patrick Chanezon said:
Disclaimer: I'm the OpenSocial API evangelist, so I'm biased:-)
* Re: lack of Facebook in OpenSocial: you can run an OpenSocial application in facebook using a bridge service called opensocket: http://www.opensocket.org/blog/ I wish Facebook would ship their own version of that:-)
* Connecting social networks together: this is more a business than technical issue. OpenSocial may actually provide a nice data format for these interactions if the players agree on doing this. Take a look at Google Friend Connect as a good start in this direction: http://www.google.com/friendconnect/
Patrick Chanezon, Google Developer Advocate
http://wordpress.chanezon.com/
http://opensocial.org/
irc://irc.freenode.net/opensocial
# on June 20, 2008 12:33 PM, Pierre-Denis Autric said:
Have a look to this interview from a director at Google Joe Kraus:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1982
# on June 20, 2008 8:24 PM, Niraj J said:
an interesting thing about stickiness on the internet is that it is either very tight and keeps on attracting more and more very fast and erodes also very fast. There is a Core Critical Mass that carries the stickiness around.
My story: In 1998 ,99 : I was stuck to hotmail , practically everyone I knew had a hotmail account. then came the Microsoft acquisition , MSFT screwed up on user experience. I held on to my account like my phone number. Saw some improvement in yahoo mail , but still held on to my account.
then came gmail. Started realizing that all my friends had started moving to gmail , the spam killer was the killer app for gmail.I was probably one of the last ones to move to gmail completely.
The point of my story is that dont take stikyness for granted. With a few more mistakes like Beacon facebook could well be out of the window. Also understand that Facebook has not got into the blood of 30's to 50's crowd(the professional's) who are difficult to latch on to but who also are the key folks that keep the stikyness
# on June 22, 2008 7:13 PM, Vinesh Kurup said:
Thanks for the interesting and thought provoking inputs from Pierre-Denis and Niraj. I think there is a bit of an overlap, hence am responding in one go. So far we have seen a lot of social graphs being created, and there is a bit of fatigue when you get an invite to yet another social network. Niraj has a very valid (& hotly contested) point around the ‘core critical mass’ and I do subscribe to that theory. However, I am seeing a trend wherein this core mass is becoming very transient and is keen to move onto the ‘next shiny object’, and we will continue seeing this as an ongoing trend. Stickiness has to come from a central subject. This is where Sermo.com seems to be a very good model.
The second point was around monetising social networks. This is a challenge to both the network operator as well as for businesses trying to leverage this as an advertising/marketing media. If in the real world, I don’t fancy being a multi-level marketer and selling to friends, then why would I do this in the virtual world. Beacon did falter on that altar. While, I can give a friend a hug or poke on Facebook, there has to be a way in which I can buy a beer or coke for my friends. A business should then be able to fulfil such a gift economically, by either shipping the coke (unlikely) or redeem the coupon at the local store (likely). This is where Second Life shows the way where ‘Linden Dollars’ can be converted to real dollars and vice versa, though I think such a business will have to be in the ‘micro-quantity’ business i.e. cost of a gift should not exceed the psychological barrier of USD 1. While this is an example of ‘push’ marketing, I think a similar pull model can also evolve e.g. Micro-finance. Consider what might happen if you combine a Facebook with Zopa?