Predictions are easy to make, I can boldly predict that in 2013 we will discover the secret to cold fusion... if I'm wrong I can make the same prediction next year, and every year until we crack it. Thus on the time I'm right I can exclaim 'I told you so'. Clearly however such predictions are nonsense as its simply a case of 'buying a ticket' and then hoping the prediction comes right this time. Predictions can also be wonderfully vague such as "If there is someone you love, allow yourself to love them. If there is someone you trust, allow yourself to trust them. And if there is someone you are not sure of? Don't allow this to become the reason why you refuse to respect a word they ever say. Many things can explain an odd reaction to a particular person. It may say as much about a failing on our part, as a fault in theirs. I'm not suggesting that you become naive or that you ignore your instincts entirely; but be a little generous with the benefit of the doubt." which I pulled today from an Jonathan Cainer's astrology site. This really isn't even a prediction as its not something on which a real decision could actually be made around an action, its certainly not in anyway a guide to the future, a 'forecast' as it says. So this means we've two clear pieces for a Prediction to be considered a good one
- It should be measurable - it should allow actions to be measured against the prediction and give guidance as to what actions should be taken
- It should be measured in its broad context - not simply as a 'it was right' but understanding how many times the forecast was right.
- It should have a timeframe against the forecast - not simply 'the Sun will explode in the future' type things